Round Britain for the RNLI Blog

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Leg Trip Reports This is where Paul reports on the actual leg itself. How he left port, what happened on route and his arrival at the destination.
Latest News Read about the build up and preparation for the trip and also any news not directly related to the Daily Travel Blog.
I'm Staying at Home Blog How is Paul's wife coping with being left at home? Find out here as she puts her side of the event while Paul is away.

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What are the weather people up to?

As I speak (Saturday 2.30pm) the various weather models are showing Monday to be radically different. GFS is predicting Monday will have F5 wind while WRF is showing it as a F1-2  . Both models show a series of depressions rotating anti-clockwise with new secondary lows forming over the north sea, travelling west over the uk then south to Spain and east and north again to France. A very complex and unpredictable compound low.

Looking at the Jet Stream chart there is a strange reversal of the jet stream over southern UK. Normally it is basically west to east (hence the general flow of our weather that way) but it currently travels south over Spain, north over France and unusually hooks back east over south UK. This is creating a block, holding the pressure systems that are currently over the south UK in place. It is wallowing about in no clear direction with new lows forming and others dissipating.

I suspect that this situation may exist for a while. It is going to be difficult to forecast anything over the next week or so and until that east hook of the jet stream disappears then I wouldn’t be surprised to be stuck in Plymouth possibly until the end of this week.

NONE, NADA, ZIP, ZILCH

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