Round Britain for the RNLI Blog

As I speak (Saturday 2.30pm) the various weather models are showing Monday to be radically different. GFS is predicting Monday will have F5 wind while WRF is showing it as a F1-2  . Both models show a series of depressions rotating anti-clockwise with new secondary lows forming over the north sea, travelling west over the uk then south to Spain and east and north again to France. A very complex and unpredictable compound low.

Looking at the Jet Stream chart there is a strange reversal of the jet stream over southern UK. Normally it is basically west to east (hence the general flow of our weather that way) but it currently travels south over Spain, north over France and unusually hooks back east over south UK. This is creating a block, holding the pressure systems that are currently over the south UK in place. It is wallowing about in no clear direction with new lows forming and others dissipating.

I suspect that this situation may exist for a while. It is going to be difficult to forecast anything over the next week or so and until that east hook of the jet stream disappears then I wouldn’t be surprised to be stuck in Plymouth possibly until the end of this week.

I have added a new category in the Blogs section called Weather. I will try to give my interpretation of the weather situation as I make those all important go/no go decisions.

I have a bit of experience at looking at and interpreting weather charts and data but I am no expert! Weather forecasting is often more an art than a science so if you disagree with my interpretation then I am not surprised. If you do disagree then post a comment to the blog post and let us all know why.